E noho haʻahaʻa nā palena waiwai o ka honua polyethylene a me propylene

1. Ua hui pū ʻia nā kumukūʻai petrochemical o ʻAsia Malaki

Wahi a ICIS Singapore, i Malaki, ua hōʻike nā huahana petrochemical ma nā kaulahao waiwai like ʻole ma Asia i nā ʻano kumukūʻai like ʻole ma muli o nā loli i ke koena o ka lako a me ka noi.E like me ka manawa paʻi, ʻo ka hapalua o nā huahana petrochemical 31 i uhi ʻia e ka ICIS Asia Price Forecast he haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa ma Malaki ma mua o Pepeluali.

Ua hoʻomaka ka noi holoʻokoʻa ma Kina i ka hoʻōla ʻana i ka lā Malaki, wahi a ICIS.Hoʻomaka ʻia nā hana ma Kina e hoʻomaka hou i ka maʻalahi o nā mea maʻi maʻi.ʻO nā kumukūʻai polyester ma Kina i ʻike i ka piʻi ikaika ma Malaki, hoʻonui ʻia e ka hana ikaika i ka mākaʻikaʻi a me nā hana waho, a ʻo nā pani i hoʻolālā ʻole ʻia i ka hapaha mua e hoʻokuʻu pū i ke kumukūʻai awelika o ka waikawa acrylic i Malaki.Hiki ke hoʻonui hou i ka maopopo ʻole e pili ana i nā kumukūʻai ʻaila.Ua hāʻule nā ​​kumukūʻai no US benchmark crude West Texas Intermediate (WTI), e koi ana i nā kumukūʻai naphtha ma lalo o $ 700/mt i ka waena o ka mahina.

I ka manawa like, hiki i ka noi ma kekahi mau ʻāpana e like me ka waiwai a me nā kaʻa i Asia ke hōʻike i kahi hoʻomaikaʻi liʻiliʻi, akā ʻaʻole lawa ia e hoʻopau i nā hopohopo.ʻO ke kumukūʻai maʻamau o ka diisononyl phthalate (DINP) a me nā waiʻona oxo, e pili kokoke ana i ka ʻoihana kūkulu, hāʻule i Malaki.ʻO nā kumukūʻai no kekahi mau huahana, e like me ka propylene a me ka polypropylene (PP), e hoʻemi nui ʻia e ka mana hou.Ua nāwaliwali nā kumukūʻai o Ethylene i Malaki, akā ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe o nā kumukūʻai ma Malaki ma mua o Pepeluali ma muli o kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka hoʻomaka ʻana i ka hoʻomaka ʻana o Malaki.

ʻOkoʻa ka hoʻihoʻi hou ʻana o Kina i ka hapaha mua, me ka wikiwiki o ka hoʻihoʻi ʻana i nā mea kūʻai kūʻai paʻa ʻole, akā ʻoi aku ka lohi o ka rebound i nā waiwai paʻa a me ka hoʻopukapuka.Ma ka ʻoihana ʻai a me ka ʻoihana mākaʻikaʻi, e like me ka ʻikepili mai ka Ministry of Transport o Kina, i Pepeluali, 54 mau kūlanakauhale Kina me ke kaʻa kaʻa kaʻa kūlanakauhale a me ke kaʻaahi i lawe ʻia i ka huina o 2.18 biliona mau kaʻa, hoʻonui i ka makahiki o 39.6%, ʻoi aku ka kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka ʻO ka awelika o kēlā me kēia mahina ka nui o nā kaʻa ma 2019 9.6%.ʻO ka piʻi ʻana o ke kaʻa kaʻa i nā mahina ʻelua i hala o 2023 e hōʻike ana i ka hoʻihoʻi ikaika ʻana i ka huakaʻi intercity ma Kina.E hoʻoikaika ikaika ʻia ʻo FMCG ma Asia e ka hoʻonui ʻana i nā hana o waho a e hoʻonui i ka noi no nā polymers.E kākoʻo ka ʻai ʻana i ka meaʻai a me ka inu ʻana i nā kumukūʻai PP a me nā kumukūʻai polyethylene terephthalate (PET)."ʻO ka hoʻonui ʻia ʻana o nā mea kūʻai lole e pōmaikaʻi i ka ʻoihana polyester," wahi a Jenny Yi ka mea loiloi kiʻekiʻe o ICIS.

Ke waiho nei nā mea kānalua nui i kekahi mau wahi o ka hoʻohana ʻana i ka mea hoʻohana hope, e alakaʻi ana i ka manaʻo makaʻala.Ma ka ʻoihana kaʻa, ua lohi ka kūʻai ʻana ma Ianuali a me Pepeluali 2023 i kēlā me kēia makahiki ma muli o ka pau ʻana o ka hoʻomaha ʻauhau kūʻai kaʻa a Kina a me nā haʻawina kaʻa uila i ka hopena o 2022. Ua mau ka nāwaliwali o ka noi mai ka ʻoihana kūkulu ma Asia.Eia kekahi, ua nāwaliwali nā hoʻokuʻu aku ma waena o ka piʻi ʻana o ka honua a me nā koi koi polyolefin.

Ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei ʻo ICIS ʻo ia ka mana hana hou e lilo i kumu koʻikoʻi e kū ana i ke kaomi i lalo i nā kumukūʻai o kekahi mau huahana petrochemical ma Asia i kēia makahiki.ʻO ka hoʻokō ʻia ʻana o ʻelua mau pahū naphtha nui a me nā ʻāpana derivatives i ka waena o Pepeluali e hoʻonui hou aku i kekahi mau huahana e like me ka polyethylene (PE) a me ka PP.Ke hoʻohālikelike ʻia me ke kaulahao ʻoihana ethylene, ʻoi aku ka hopena o ka propylene a me nā kaulahao ʻoihana PP e ka mana hana hou.Ma muli o ka nui o nā papahana propane dehydrogenation (PDH) hou e kauoha ʻia i kēia makahiki.Mai Malaki a ʻApelila o kēia makahiki, loaʻa iā ʻAsia he 2.6 miliona tons/makahiki o ka mana hana propylene hou i hoʻolālā ʻia e hoʻokomo ʻia.Ke alo nei i kahi kiʻekiʻe o ka ulu ʻana o ka hiki, ke manaʻo ʻia nei nā kumukūʻai ʻo ʻAsia PP i lalo i Malaki a me ʻApelila.

"Ma mua o 140,000 tonnes o ka ethylene e manaʻo ʻia e hoʻouna ʻia mai ʻAmelika a hiki i Asia i ka lua o ka hapaha, e ʻoi aku ka makaʻala o ka mākeke," wahi a Amy Yu, ka mea loiloi kiʻekiʻe ma ICIS.Eia kekahi, hiki ke hoʻolako maikaʻi ʻia ka hoʻolako ʻana mai nā wahi ʻē aʻe ma Asia ma hope o Malaki.ʻO ka PP, PE a me nā ukana ethylene ma ka Hikina Waena ke hoʻōla mālie nei i ka wā e pau ai ka pani ʻana o ka manawa ma ka ʻāina i ka hopena o Malaki.Me ka hoʻonui ʻana o ka lako ma ka mākeke kūloko o Kina a me nā kumukūʻai kiʻekiʻe ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe, e hoʻomau mau ana kekahi mau mea hana PP e hoʻokuʻu aku i nā ukana PP hou aʻe i nā wahi ʻē aʻe, me Asia Hema, ʻAsia Hema a me ʻApelika Hema.Hiki i kēia kahe kālepa e pili ana i ka puka aniani arbitrage ke hoʻopili i nā ʻano kumu kūʻai ma nā wahi ʻē aʻe.

2.S&P Global: E noho haʻahaʻa nā palena waiwai o ka honua polyethylene a me propylene

I kēia mau lā, ua haʻi aku kekahi mau poʻo o S&P Global Commodity Insights ma ka World Petrochemical Conference ma Houston e loaʻa i nā ʻoihana polyethylene a me propylene nā palena kālā haʻahaʻa ma muli o ke kaulike ʻole ma waena o ka lako a me ka noi.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Jesse Tijelina, ke poʻo o nā polymers honua ma S&P Global, ʻo ke ʻano koʻikoʻi ma waena o ka hoʻolako a me ke koi ua hoʻokomo i ka mākeke polyethylene honua i loko o kahi pā, a ʻaʻole hiki ke loaʻa ka loaʻa kālā o ka ʻoihana polyethylene a hiki i 2024 i ka wā mua, a ʻo kekahi mau hale hana. pono e pani mau.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Tijelina, mai 2012 a 2017, ʻo ka ulu ʻana o ka hoʻolako a me ke koi ʻana o ka resin polyethylene he ʻano like ia, akā ʻoi aku ka nui o ka hana ma mua o ka noi ma kahi o 10 miliona tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki.Ma ka 2027, ʻoi aku ka mana hou ma mua o ka koi hou e 3 miliona mau tons / makahiki.I ka wā lōʻihi, ke ulu nei ka mākeke polyethylene ma kahi o 4 miliona mau tons i kēlā me kēia makahiki.Inā pani ʻia ka hoʻohui ʻana i kēia manawa, e mau ana ka mākeke ma kahi o 3 mau makahiki e hoʻoponopono hou ai."Ke nānā nei i hope i ka makahiki 2022, nui nā mea hana i pani no ka manawa pōkole i nā waiwai kumu kūʻai nui, a ke manaʻoʻiʻo nei mākou e pani mau ʻia ka nui o ka hiki ke pani ʻia i ka wā e hiki mai ana," wahi a Tijelina.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Larry Tan, ke poʻo o ka ʻāina ʻo ʻAsia-Pākīpika, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o ka propane dehydrogenation (PDH) i alakaʻi i ka nui o ka hoʻolako ʻana i ka mākeke propylene, kahi e mālama ai i ka palena waiwai o ka ʻoihana propylene ma kahi haʻahaʻa a hiki i 2025. Aia ka ʻoihana propylene honua i kēia manawa, a ʻaʻole e hoʻomaikaʻi nā palena kālā a hiki i ka makahiki 2025.Ma 2022, ʻo ka piʻi ʻana o nā kumukūʻai hana a me nā koi nāwaliwali e hoʻomau i ka haʻahaʻa haʻahaʻa a i ʻole e hoʻololi i ka maikaʻi no nā mea hana propylene he nui ma Asia a me ʻEulopa.Mai 2020 a 2024, manaʻo ʻia ka ulu ʻana o ka polymer a me ka chemical grade propylene e 2.3 mau manawa kiʻekiʻe ma mua o ka ulu koi.

Eia nō naʻe, ʻōlelo pū ʻo Tan e "maikaʻi maikaʻi" nā margins no nā mea hana a pau koe naphtha crackers ma Western Europe ma 2028. ʻO nā kumu nui ʻelua o ka propylene i ka ʻoihana petrochemical ʻo PDH a me ka refinery catalytic cracking.Manaʻo ʻo S&P Global i ka hoʻololi ʻana o ka ikehu e hoʻohaʻahaʻa i ka noi no ka ʻaila kaʻa, ʻo kekahi o nā hopena e hōʻemi i nā hana catalytic cracking."No laila ke hoʻomau nei ka noi propylene honua, pono e hoʻopiha ʻia ka deficit propylene i kahi wahi," wahi a Tan.ʻAʻole ʻike nā ʻāpana PDH i nā waiwai nui a hiki i kēlā manawa.

3. ʻO ka ʻoki ʻana o ka OPEC i manaʻo ʻole ʻia e hoʻoulu i ka piʻi nui o nā kumukūʻai aila honua

I ka hoʻolaha ʻana o nā lālā o ka Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) i ka ʻoki ʻana i ka hana, ua piʻi nui nā kumukūʻai o ka aila ʻaila honua ma mua o 6% i ka hopena o ka lā 3.

I ka pau ʻana o ka lā, ua piʻi ke kumukūʻai o ka aila ʻaila māmā no ka hoʻouna ʻana o Mei ma New York Mercantile Exchange i $ 4.75 a pani i $ 80.42 i ka barela, kahi piʻi o 6.28%.Ua piʻi ʻo London Brent crude futures no ka lawe ʻana o Iune i $ 5.04, a i ʻole 6.31%, e pani i $ 84.93 i ka barela.

Ua hoʻolaha ʻo OPEC i ka lā 3 i ʻike ʻia e ke Kōmike Hui Pū ʻIa o OPEC a me nā ʻāina hana ʻaila non-OPEC ma ka hālāwai i mālama ʻia ma ka lā hoʻokahi i hoʻolaha ai nā lālā o OPEC i ka lā 2 e hoʻomaka lākou i kahi hoʻolālā hoʻēmi hana manawaleʻa me ka awelika o kēlā me kēia lā. o 1.157 miliona barela e hoomaka ana ma Mei.He hana makaʻala ia e hoʻopaʻa i ka mākeke aila.Me ka awelika o ka hoʻemi ʻana o ka hana ʻana i kēlā me kēia lā o Rūsia he 500,000 barela a hiki i ka hopena o kēia makahiki, ʻo ka nui o ka hōʻemi ʻana i ka hana manawaleʻa e nā ʻāina hana ʻaila nui e hiki aku ma kahi o 1.66 miliona barela i kēlā me kēia lā.

Ua ʻōlelo ʻo Vivek Dahl, he mea loiloi waiwai waiwai ma Commonwealth Bank of Australia, ʻo ka hoʻoholo hope loa o nā lālā OPEC e hōʻike ana i ka hopena o ka ʻoki ʻana i ka hana ma mua o ka wā ma mua.

Ke hoʻomau nei ʻo UBS Group i kahi manaʻo maikaʻi i nā kumukūʻai aila, e wānana ana e piʻi ana nā kumukūʻai aila Brent i $ 100 i ka pahu i Iune o kēia makahiki.

JIN DUN KIMIKAua kūkulu ʻo ia i kahi kumu hana hana monomer acrylic kūikawā (meth) ma ZHEJIANG.Mālama kēia i ka lako paʻa o HEMA, HPMA, HEA, HPA, GMA me ke kūlana kiʻekiʻe.Hoʻohana nui ʻia kā mākou monomers acrylate kūikawā no ka thermosetting acrylic resins, crosslinkable emulsion polymers, acrylate anaerobic adhesive, ʻelua-component acrylate adhesive, solvent acrylate adhesive, emulsion acrylate adhesive, pepa hoʻopau ʻana a me ka pena ʻana i nā resins acrylic i adhesive. a me nā monomers acrylic kūikawā (meth) a me nā mea i loaʻa.E like me nā monomers acrylate fluorinated, hiki ke hoʻohana nui ʻia i ka mea hoʻonaninani hoʻonaninani, pena, inks, resins photosensitive, mea optical, fiber treatment, modifier for plastic or rubber field.Ke manaʻo nei mākou e lilo i mea hoʻolako kiʻekiʻe ma ke kahua onā monomers acrylate kūikawā, e kaʻana like i kā mākou ʻike waiwai me nā huahana maikaʻi aʻe a me ka lawelawe ʻoihana.